Grants, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

395
FXUS65 KABQ 130611 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1211 AM MDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

- Moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars
  today then a moderate risk on Wednesday.

- After decreasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
  and Thursday, storm coverage will increase over central and
  western areas Friday and most areas this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Higher moisture in the form of PWATs between 0.7 to 0.8 inches has
moved into the RGV to along the Continental Divide today behind last
night`s convectively enhanced backdoor front. Daytime heating along
with this higher moisture in place has allowed shower and
thunderstorm development across the central mountain chain and Gila
Mountains early this afternoon. Additionally, a boundary across east
central NM near Tucumcari is allowing for some weak isolated shower
and storm development across this part of the state. Storm motion
will generally be slow to the south-southeast due to mid and upper
level flow around the 594 dam upper high centered across the
southern Great Basin in Nevada. Storms will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall rates greater than 1 inch per hour, so for
that reason, the Flash Flood Watch that was only in effect for the
Ruidoso burn scars has been expanded to include the Hermits Peak and
Calf Canyon burn scar along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains. Colliding outflow boundaries from this shower and storm
activity will allow storms to fill into the nearby highlands and RGV
later this afternoon into the evening. Some localized areas of urban
and arroyo channel flash flooding cannot be ruled out across the
Santa Fe and ABQ Metros. Shower and thunderstorm activity across
central areas will slowly taper off at around sunset due to the loss
of daytime heating with clearing skies after midnight.

More of the same is expected on Wednesday with shower and storm
coverage a little lower compared to today due to the 593 dam upper
high centroid moving over the Four Corners area. With the lower
coverage and thus confidence in showers and storms impacting the
HPCC and Ruidoso burn scars tomorrow afternoon, opted to not issue a
new Flash FLood Watch at this time. In terms of high temperatures,
areas west of the central mountain chain will be near to slightly
above normal with areas along and east of the central mountain chain
near to slightly below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

The 593 to 594 dam upper high moves east over northeast and east
central areas of the state on Thursday. This along with a trough
entering the Pacific coast will allow for a traditional monsoon flow
to setup across AZ with far western NM on the eastern edge of this
flow. Shower and thunderstorm activity will favor the higher terrain
and nearby highlands with the best coverage across the Gila
Mountains due to being closer to that aforementioned traditional
monsoon flow. High temperatures will be slightly above average
areawide. Come Friday, the 594 to 595 dam upper high moves off over
the central U.S due to the trough moving over the Great Basin. This
will allow the monsoon plume and associated shower and thunderstorm
activity to move into western and central NM, with PWATS in this
plume around 0.8 to 1 inch which is around to slightly above average
for mid August. Storm motion will generally be to the north-
northeast and burn scars will need to monitored closely for flash
flooding, especially if they receive multiple rounds of storms.
Saturday is looking nearly identical to Friday with the monsoon
plume and associated shower and thunderstorm coverage expanding more
into eastern NM as the trough over the Great Basin dampens out a
little.

Going into early next week, the upper high over the central U.S.
begins to pivot back westward but southerly flow between the upper
high still centered over the central U.S. and weak troughing just
off the Pacific coast will help keep a healthy and traditional flow
of monsoon moisture across the state. As usual, shower and
thunderstorm coverage will favor the mountain ranges and nearby
highlands filling into lower elevations during the late afternoon
and evening hours. Come next Tuesday, extended guidance shows a new
596 to 597 dam upper high centroid developing over the CO Rockies.
East and northeast flow south of this upper high centroid will allow
shower and thunderstorm coverage to favor areas along and west of
the central mountain chain come then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1153 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A moderately strong high pressure system will move over the
forecast area on Wednesday. High temperatures will climb near
average over eastern areas, and as much as 7 degrees above average
over north central and western areas where density altitude will
be an important consideration for aviation operations near
complex terrain. There will also be a downtick in thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon, with scattered storms initially forming
over the mountains, then spreading gradually to surrounding
lowlands with slow and erratic storm motion. Exceptions will
include the southwest mountains where numerous storms are
forecast, and the Chuska, Sandia,and Manzano Mountains where dry
weather is expected. Only a few lingering cells are forecast near
the southwest border with AZ after sunset, then dry weather
areawide by late evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM MDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Shower and thunderstorm coverage will favor the central mountain
chain, Gila Mountains, and nearby highlands the next 2 days.
Meanwhile, critically low minimum relative humidity values will
continue over northwest areas through Thursday due to drier
northwest flow. A traditional flow of monsoon moisture is forecast
to set up late Thursday but more so Friday. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will favor far western areas Thursday, western and central
areas Friday and then most of the state outside of the Four Corners
area this weekend into Monday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage
looks to shift back to areas along and west of the central mountain
chain next Tuesday into mid next week. As always, any storm will be
capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and localized flash
flooding with the flash flood risk higher for area burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  64  95  63  96 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  47  92  49  92 /   5  20  10  20
Cuba............................  54  89  56  90 /   5  10  10  20
Gallup..........................  51  93  53  91 /   0  10   5  30
El Morro........................  54  88  55  87 /   5  20  10  50
Grants..........................  54  92  55  91 /   5  10  10  40
Quemado.........................  56  88  58  87 /  10  30  20  70
Magdalena.......................  61  88  63  88 /  10  20   5  30
Datil...........................  54  85  56  85 /  10  40  10  50
Reserve.........................  52  92  54  90 /  20  50  20  70
Glenwood........................  57  95  58  94 /  20  70  20  70
Chama...........................  47  85  50  85 /  10  20  10  40
Los Alamos......................  59  86  62  87 /  10  20   5  40
Pecos...........................  54  85  58  87 /  20  20  10  30
Cerro/Questa....................  54  85  56  86 /  10  30  10  50
Red River.......................  44  76  48  77 /  10  30  10  40
Angel Fire......................  39  78  40  80 /  10  30  10  40
Taos............................  51  87  53  89 /   5  20  10  30
Mora............................  49  81  52  84 /  10  30  10  40
Espanola........................  56  94  58  96 /  10  20   5  20
Santa Fe........................  59  87  63  89 /  10  20  10  20
Santa Fe Airport................  56  90  59  92 /  10  10   5  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  93  70  94 /  20   5   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  64  94  66  95 /  10   5   5   5
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  97  65  99 /  10   0   5   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  95  67  97 /  10   5   5   5
Belen...........................  60  96  62  98 /  10   5   5   5
Bernalillo......................  61  95  65  97 /  10   5   5  10
Bosque Farms....................  59  96  62  98 /  10   0   5   5
Corrales........................  63  97  66  98 /  10   5   5  10
Los Lunas.......................  61  96  63  98 /  10   0   5   5
Placitas........................  62  92  66  93 /  10   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  63  95  66  97 /  10   5   5  10
Socorro.........................  64  97  66  99 /  10  10   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  87  62  89 /  10   5   5  10
Tijeras.........................  59  90  63  91 /  20   5   5  10
Edgewood........................  54  90  58  91 /  20   5   5  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  51  90  55  91 /  20   5   5   5
Clines Corners..................  55  84  59  85 /  20   5  10   5
Mountainair.....................  55  88  60  89 /  20   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  56  86  59  88 /  20  10   5  10
Carrizozo.......................  61  88  64  90 /  20  20  10  10
Ruidoso.........................  56  80  59  82 /  20  50  10  20
Capulin.........................  54  83  55  86 /   0  20  10  10
Raton...........................  51  87  53  89 /   0  20  10  20
Springer........................  54  89  54  91 /   0  20  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  53  85  55  87 /  10  20  10  20
Clayton.........................  60  89  63  93 /   0   5  10   0
Roy.............................  58  87  59  90 /  10  10  20   5
Conchas.........................  63  94  65  97 /  10   5  10   0
Santa Rosa......................  60  91  61  93 /  20   5  10   5
Tucumcari.......................  61  90  64  93 /  10   0   5   0
Clovis..........................  64  93  66  97 /  10   0   5   0
Portales........................  64  93  66  97 /  20   0   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  64  93  66  96 /  10   0   5   0
Roswell.........................  67  97  68  99 /  20   5   5   0
Picacho.........................  60  90  62  92 /  20  20   5  10
Elk.............................  56  87  59  89 /  20  30   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....71
AVIATION...44